Flashpoint
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Paid
calibration-report
Paid
Scores your resolved predictions with a Brier score, shows your hit rate against your stated confidence by bucket, and tells you where you are overconfident.
This one is in the paid set. Enter your code below and the download turns on.
Reach for it when
- Quarterly, once about twenty predictions have resolved
- You want to know whether your confidence is worth anything
- Needs first
- Resolved predictions in the journal. Under ten it computes the numbers and says they are not yet meaningful.
- Leaves behind
- A Brier score against two naive baselines, a calibration curve, and one process change.
- Takes about
- Five minutes.
- Will not
- Flatter you. If your confidence is subtracting information it says so, and the honest response is to stop using confidence in sizing.
Locked
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