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Paid
cycle-locator
Paid
Places a cyclical business in the four-stage cycle and runs the cheap-on-peak-earnings test. A low multiple in the supply-response stage is the most reliable value trap in public markets.
This one is in the paid set. Enter your code below and the download turns on.
Reach for it when
- Anything in semiconductors, energy, shipping, mining, chemicals or housing
- A screen surfaced something at 5x earnings and you want to know why
- You want to know what would confirm the next stage
- Needs first
- A capacity survey. It is the real work and the output says how complete it is.
- Leaves behind
- A stage with the evidence for and against, the mid-cycle valuation beside the trailing one, and the transition markers.
- Takes about
- An hour, mostly on announced capacity.
- Will not
- Call a top or a bottom. It locates a stage from observables.
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