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pre-mortem

Puts you three years forward, tells you the position lost 70 percent, and asks you to explain why. The past tense is the technique: asked prospectively people list risks, asked retrospectively people explain.

Score and decideStage 5 Twenty-five minutes.

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Reach for it when

  • Before decision-memo on anything of size
  • Whenever the research has produced no discomfort
  • When you cannot see how this fails
Needs first
A thesis and a draft of the kill criteria.
Leaves behind
Five failure paths with early warning signs, the paths that have no warning sign, and the sentence naming what you are actually betting on.
Takes about
Twenty-five minutes.
Will not
Reassure you. If the output leaves you more comfortable, it was done wrong.

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